BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

12/12/2008

Belarus Defence and Security Report 2008 - companiesandmarkets.com adds new report

Belarus faced something of a defence and security crossroads in 2007. An isolated and near pariahlike state in the international community, it had relied on a close strategic alliance with Russia to help shore up its economy and its defence and security position. But the dominant story of the year was the opening of a long and damaging conflict with Moscow over gas prices and transit fees. Shocked with the doubling of gas prices charged by Gazprom in January 2007, the government of Alexander Lukashenko reacted erratically, oscillating between defiance and attempts to renegotiate the terms of a previously privileged relationship with Russia's President Vladimir Putin. In a series of statements throughout the year Lukashenko castigated the Russians for their greed, suggested his country would develop its own nuclear reactors to gain greater energy independence, and yet at the same time at various points acknowledged that Russia remained his main foreign policy priority and that the 'union pact' - a plan to merge the two states pulled apart by the collapse of the Soviet Union - remained his long-term goal. The counterpart of this policy zigzag was oscillation in relations with the European Union. Here, Minsk wavered between rejecting Brussels' demands for democracy and human rights on the one hand, and seeking some kind of accommodation on the other. In October 2007 the Minsk authorities even allowed a small demonstration by opposition parties calling for closer links with the European Union.

Despite Belarus' poor diplomatic and military relationship with the US and the EU, its external and internal security remained reasonably stable during 2007. The opposition to the government remained relatively weak, cowed by the weight of the security services, and with only tenuous unity among the different political groupings. Strong economic growth has to some extent softened anti-government protests over the lack of democracy. Looking towards the future, however, cooling relations with Moscow may have a negative impact on the economy, and contribute to a more difficult political scenario for the regime.

In 2007 Belarus' arms trade continued to come under greater scrutiny from the international community. Reports of arms sales to rogue or strongly anti-US states (among them Venezuela and Iran) were being watched closely in Western capitals. Suspicions had emerged after Belarus purchased the technology without the necessary support systems or the need. The international community still regards Belarus as a prominent conduit for illegal arms trading.

The Belarusian defence industry continues to be dominated by state-run defence enterprises such as Beltechexport and Belvneshpromservis. The latter is a significant player in Belarusian arms exports and modernisation.

Source:

http://www.live-pr.com/en/belarus-defence-and-security-report-r1048242804.htm

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