BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

15/12/2007

Putin, Lukashenka Meet for Tete-a-tete in Minsk

It was not the Union State they discussed, though

Presidents of Russia and Belarus agreed on Friday that Belarus will get a loan of $1.5 billion to pay higher price for Russia's natural gas. Kommersant's special correspondent Andrei Kolesnikov believes that can be viewed as news, considering the complete absence of political intrigue when not a word was said about the Russia-Belarus Union State.

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived to Minsk at 9:30 p.m. Moscow time on Thursday. Belarusian Prime Minister Sergei Sidorsky met him. According to protocol, the PM was to take Putin to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka's residence for dinner, after which Lukashenka wanted to offer traditional Russian banya to Putin, as some sources said. Although the history of their long-term fruitful political and economic relations would rather suggest a blood bath instead.

However, instead of the cultural program, Sidorsky took Putin to the airport building to talk, which was a gross violation of the protocol. Both protocol services became very nervous, especially the Belarusian one. It was evident: all that was happening without Lukashenka's assent. Sidorsky took quite a desperate step actually. The question is: what for?

The one-on-one talk lasted around 40 minutes. Eventually, Russian news agencies announced on Thursday night that the Russian president had a meeting with the Belarusian prime minister, discussing those issues with the PM which he was to discuss with the president of Belarus. This way, Sidorsky was punished for the delay in the airport. Even if Lukashenka wants, he will hardly be able to disregard the fact that his subordinate dared, over the boss' head, discuss with Putin the issues which are to be discussed by the two presidents in private.

Lukashenka will not be able to disregard it even if he contrived all that himself, so that Sidorsky could tell Putin the things which Lukashenka himself would never say to the Russian leader.

Meanwhile, Minsk produced a very good impression. It is a beautiful neat city with artfully decorated and impeccably well-repaired facades. Outdoor advertising does not irritate the eye, simply because there is none. There is just a phrase reading "Nation's heroic deed to live in history" installed along one of the longest buildings in the city center. Shop windows are decorated with painted snowflakes and snowmen, like in good old Soviet movies. At the same time, Minsk has many restaurants: Belarusian, Japanese, as well as German pubs where jazz bands play in the evenings.

However, in the morning all that splendor crashes against a sign reading "The residence of the president of Belarus". An attempt to photograph it causes panic and a fit of fear in Belarusian policemen. They demand immediately stopping the wrongdoing, but it is too late. Now they face a most difficult choice: whether to detain the photojournalist, who has already entered the residence, which means he is no longer a pronounced enemy. Especially since his name is in the admittance list by a metal detector frame, and since the Belarusian president's security service officer has already let the photojournalist in, after carefully comparing the latter's face to someone's photograph.

Later, I saw whose picture it was that the guard consulted, not just once, but to compare everyone who entered the building. I was surprised to see it was Lukashenka's photograph. Apparently, the officer checked everyone against the Belarusian president's photo because he must have allowed that anyone could turn out to be the bat'ka himself, upon a closer view.

While we were waiting on the fifth floor for the negotiations to begin, I looked through Soviet Belarus newspaper. In a news column between 'Tatoo' and 'Striptease' headings, I found a small article in 'Protests'. It said: "A rally of protest against V. Putin's visit to Belarus took place in Minsk. The rally was not authorized by the city authorities. The police detained the protesters." It strongly resembled the rally of protest by Nashi youth movement activists near the Estonian embassy in Moscow, unauthorized by the Russian authorities either.

In his residence's Blue reception room, Lukashenka told Putin that he is very surprised at the agitation, "especially in the West", which started due to the visit. Apparently, Lukashenka thinks the visit's meaning is so mediocre that it deserves no attention at all.

However, the Belarusian president added:

"I am absolutely confident that we will reach agreement in all issues."

That confidence produced a very strong impression, especially if we take into account that so far Putin and Lukashenka have not reached agreement in any issue over all these years.

Yet, one exception will probably have to be made. Before the meeting began, the presidents must have had decided it was necessary to somehow explain to the public why Putin came to Minsk. Lukashenka undertook that mission. He recalled the CIS-EurAsEC-CSTO summit in Dushanbe, when it suddenly came up that Putin, in the eight years of his presidency, had never had an official visit to Minsk, which seemed very-very strange. Lukashenka must have meant that the future generations might fail to understand it.

Actually, Lukashenka must have wanted to make it clear the Union State issue would not be discussed in Minsk for sure, and that the Russian delegation should stop hoping for it, after all.

Thus, without a real political intrigue, there remained the only question to the presidents: will Russia give a $1.5 billion loan to Belarus? The loan will let Belarus pay the growing price for Russia's natural gas (the price growth was agreed upon in the contract signed by Russia and Belarus in 2006).

However, Lukashenka was still inclined to be making meaningful messages to the West. Beginning the talks' extended session, he assured that Belarus is ready to play its role in the planned deployment of U.S. missile defense elements in Europe. He did not specify with whom Belarus sides in playing that role. It was quite clear on the whole.

Moreover, Lukashenka was as if imposing his services on Putin in that moment. Apparently, the Belarusian leader is aware that it is much more important for him to support Russia now, than for Putin to receive that support. Besides, Lukashenka understands that his Russian counterpart does not need it at all. Without Lukashenka, Putin has at least some chances to somehow solve the issue of U.S. missile defense deployment in Europe. With Lukashenka, there are no chances at all.

After the talks, it turned out Belarus will get the $1.5 billion loan. So, Belarus is ready to pay higher price for Russia's gas, which is a victory of Russian negotiators. On the other hand, Belarusian negotiators had no choice, in fact. Belarus will have to pay anyway, the money is needed, but where can they get it from:In this sense, the victory is with the Belarusian negotiators.

Speaking of changes which might happen in Russia-Belarus relations after March 2008, Lukashenka said that "no matter who is in power, our relations will go on, and no one will manage to change them".

It did not sound very optimistic, considering that the relations between Putin and Lukashenka practically dropped to zero level by late 2007.

"We will move on. Sometimes it is hard for us, sometimes it is difficult. Sometimes we represent different countries," said Lukashenka.

Not a word was said in Minsk about the united country, the Union State. Not a single word. It means it does not exist, and there is no longer any idea of trying to create it. Its budget is the only thing which remained of the Union State. That is the price which politicians are ready to pay for giving the idea some more time to linger.

Putin made it clear there is something else he is interested in in the relations with Belarus:

"We will not only go along the earlier signed contracts, but will also make use of all transit obligations," he added.

Russia is really worried for the stability of oil and gas transit to Europe through Belarus, and Putin was now trying to obtain additional guarantees of that stability.

However, Lukashenka did not hurry to give them.

"We want rich:," here Lukashenka must have thought the word is too flattering, ":or poor Europe to feel stable. We contribute greatly to the European stability, economic and socio-political:We would like Europe to understand the problems which appear between the two states due to their obligations."

The pedagogic role which Lukashenka plays in relation to Western Europe simply cannot be overestimated.

Andrei Kolesnikov

Source:

http://www.kommersant.com/p836507/Presidents_of_Russia_and_Belarus_agreed_on_a_$1.5_billion_loan/