BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

14/12/2007

Russia succession intrigue follows Putin to Minsk

By Oleg Shchedrov

MINSK (Reuters) - The president of Belarus discounted suggestions Russian leader Vladimir Putin could use talks on rejuvenating the idea of a merged post-Soviet state to create a power base after he steps down next year.

Lukashenko expressed surprise on Friday at reports that Putin could use leadership of the "union state" to maintain his power and influence over his successor.

"I was surprised to see that the visit triggered such a fuss in the West," Lukashenko said as the talks got under way.

"There are no political connotations here. We are friendly and allied states and I would be surprised if there was no official visit...There is nothing extraordinary here."

Lukashenko is barred entry to most Western countries and counts Putin as one of his few allies.

Putin has in recent years openly shown his distaste for Lukashenko, but he was in good humor when he greeted his host on his first full-fledged visit to Minsk since 2003.

"I want to congratulate you on the way you are solving social and economic issues," he said.

Both the Kremlin and Belarussian officials have dismissed the reports preceding the visit suggesting that the position of a powerful leader could be created for the merged state.

Ties with Lukashenko have been uneasy, so the talks fuelled speculation there was more at stake than the technical cooperation issues officials say are on the agenda.

ENERGY PRICE ROW

Relations between Moscow and Minsk hit a low last year when Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom sharply increased prices for Belarus, which had long enjoyed the cheapest rates of any foreign customer. Those tensions could resurface because the two sides have yet to agree a price for next year.

Putin is required by the constitution to step down in six months and has anointed loyal lieutenant Dmitry Medvedev as his favored successor. Endorsement from the popular Putin makes Medvedev strong favorite to win a March 2 presidential vote.

Putin has said he believes he has a "moral right" to retain influence after he leaves office, but how he will do this remains a riddle.

Medvedev this week asked his mentor to serve as prime minister under his presidency. On paper at least that is a subordinate role. Serving as head of a beefed-up Russia-Belarus union could give Putin more status and influence.

Some observers speculate the trip to Minsk could have a very different aim. A Russian general said last month Moscow could station missiles in Belarus in response to U.S. plans to site its missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

A customs and immigration union is in effect between Russia and Belarus. It has a parliamentary assembly and a secretariat with an annual budget of $4 billion roubles ($164 million).

Hopes for greater integration have, however, been blocked by disputes on how the state would be led, what do to about a common currency, rows over the price of Russian fuel and hard bargaining by Lukashenko on his role in a future union state.

(Writing by Oleg Shchedrov and Ron Popeski)

(Additional reporting by Andrei Makhovsky)

Source:

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=worldNews&storyid=2007-12-14T111923Z_01_L13913756_RTRUKOC_0_US-RUSSIA-BELARUS-PUTIN.xml

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