BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

28/12/2006

Possible disruptions in Russian gas deliveries to Poland

Despite earlier assurances, Moscow has warned its European clients of the possibility of decreased or even cut off gas deliveries through the Belarusian transit route. The problem arises from the lack of an agreement with Minsk on considerable price hikes for Belarus envisaged by the Russian side as of the New Year.

Report by Slawek Szefs

The head of Russia's Gazprom giant Aleksei Miller has sent a message to Poland, Lithuania and Germany warning them of the possibility of disrupted gas deliveries due to the conflict over prices with Belarus. Poland receives over one third of its Russian gas imports through Belarus. Though suitable storage precautions have been in force, Warsaw is worried by the perspective of a protracted stalemate in the Moscow-Minsk negotiations on the matter going well after January 1st.

Speaking on Polish Radio, head of the President's Office Aleksander Szczyglo said Poland has been continuing actions aimed at further diversification of gas supplies.

'Steps which have been taken since the beginning of the year to redefine economic relations with Russia, also with Gazprom, the diversification of gas imports - all this is still valid, because it is impossible to conduct business with an unpredictable partner.'

Przemyslaw Jaron from the Center For International Affairs says the current conflict is caused by Russia's repeated use of economic pressure as a political weapon. It also serves as a lithmus test of EU patience and unity of stand.

' This is part of a political game Russia is playing since two years. We could observe in the past they were playing with Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and now they started playing with Belarus. Gas and oil is a political tool in this game with close neighbors, which had been under the rule of the (former) Soviet Union. In my opinion, Russia is observing how Europe will react on this matter.'

Dmitryi Babych from the English language Russia Profile magazine holds the opinion that the Moscow-Minsk dispute over gas prices has two sides. Furthermore, that Russia has displayed a pro-European attitude in solving this problem.

' I think it's both economic and political. I'm surprised by Western comments on the issue, because (Russian President) Putin is actually doing what Western countries have been asking him to do for years. He is stopping subsidies for the Belarusian regime. Everyone knows the regime is based on cheap gas deliveries from Russia. So now, Russia is trying to force a price hike on Belarus to make it pay European prices for gas. This is a very natural move against Lukashenko, which Europe should support!'

However, such point of view is not shared by Polish authorities. Aleksander Szczyglo from the President's Office enumerates actions Poland should continue in order to avoid the repetition of similar problems jeopardizing its energy security.

'This is a decision to attain real diversification of supplies in talks with the Norwegians, the construction of a gas terminal in Swinoujscie port. And also convincing the European Union this is not only a Polish problem, but a broader matter which shall continue to be a burden.'

Meanwhile, head of Gazprom Aleksei Miller has informed that the Belarusian side has adopted a 'destructive stand' on the price issue.

Source:

http://www.polskieradio.pl/polonia/article.asp?tId=46535&j=2