BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

14/11/2008

Belarus: An Independent President Leans Toward Moscow

Although he has demonstrated something of an independent streak, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has expressed support for the deployment of Russian missiles in Kaliningrad to counter U.S. ballistic missile defense installations in Central Europe. He is even considering a proposal to put Russian missiles in Belarus. All this suggests he could be closing the door to any hint of a substantive opening to the West.

Analysis

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal printed Nov. 14, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said he is in discussions with the Kremlin about the possible deployment of Russian missiles in Belarus. He also voiced his support for the placement of Russian Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, with which the Kremlin hopes to neutralize planned U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) installations in Poland and the Czech Republic (although given its short range, the Iskanders would threaten only the proposed Polish sites). Lukashenko's comments came on the same day as the signing of a $2 billion loan from Russia to Belarus that was originally announced Oct. 21.

Lukashenko's support for Russian missiles in Kaliningrad and possibly in Belarus itself seems to suggest that Minsk has chosen to close the doors on any hint of a substantive opening toward the West. Minsk is still in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over a $2 billion loan to stabilize its economy, but a more strategic opening seems to be out of the picture, at least for now.

Although a staunch ally of Moscow, Lukashenko has demonstrated quite an independent streak. He criticized then-Russian President (now Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin for what he purported was Russia's impotence in preventing Kosovo's independence and has refused to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. He also wavered initially in supporting Russia's intervention in Georgia and haggled with Gazprom over natural gas prices. From Lukashenko's perspective, the Kremlin's complete and utter dominance of the Russo-Belarusian relationship is an irritant - even though he depends on Russia's support to remain in power. Lukashenko wants a more substantial role in the politics of the former Soviet Union and is generally bitter about being marginalized since the change of leadership in the Kremlin from Boris Yeltsin to Putin.

In October, Lukashenko seriously flirted with the European Union, a difficult move from the start since it would necessitate the true political liberalization of Belarus - a strategy that could lead to the unraveling of his power. As the global financial crisis swept through the region, Lukashenko also followed up a $2 billion loan from Russia with a request for another $2 billion from the IMF. IMF loans come with conditions regarding trade, government spending, taxes and other political issues that could present an excuse for Minsk to erode its close relationship with Moscow.

Stratfor sources have noted that the United States (in efforts led by U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates) was hoping to bring Belarus into the NATO fold - not through a formal membership, but rather through some other kind of structured affiliation. The details of the plan are unavailable, but it is rumored that the United States wants Lukashenko to attend the December NATO summit in Budapest. While Lukashenko's presence would not likely forge a meaningful relationship between Belarus and NATO, it certainly would be an enormous coup for Washington. It would also be a nice consolation prize for the United States, which has been unable to get the Europeans to agree on Ukrainian and Georgian membership in NATO.

Lukashenko's vocal support for Russian plans to put missiles in Kaliningrad suggests that the U.S. plans for the December summit - a long shot from the beginning - are not going to pan out. Similarly, it calls into question any further cozying up between the EU and Lukashenko, since any potential Russian missiles in Belarus would be placed there to directly threaten EU member states.

Beating the IMF to the punch with its $2 billion loan to Belarus, Russia has also reached an agreement with Belarus to trade energy in rubles, hoping that it will be a small step in shoring up the ruble at home and will lead to a region-wide trend in which Russian natural gas and oil are bought with rubles. For Belarus, the Russian loan is imperative. Belarus has had to dip into its gold reserves over the past weeks to fight the depreciation of its currency, and the Russian money should help stabilize the economy over the short term. While an IMF loan to Belarus would still be a nuisance to Moscow, it would be an even greater annoyance for the West if the investment did not produce any strategic gains with Lukashenko.

Source:

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081114_belarus_independent_president_leans_toward_moscow

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