BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

27/11/2006

Lukashenko Has a New CIS Up His Sleeve

Tomorrow's CIS summit may hold unpleasantness for Russia. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko discussed the formation of a union between Ukraine and Belarus to oppose Gazprom and to take Georgia's interests in the CIS into account at the "general rehearsal" for the summit on Friday. Russia's main opponent within the CIS, Kazakhstan, is staying mum so far. Belarus is chairing the CIS this year and Lukashenko took pains on Friday to show Russia that even the most pro-Russian members of the commonwealth can form alliances in opposition to Moscow's dictates.

The key issue in Russian-Belarusian relations today is whether Gazprom will be able to sell natural gas to Belarus at $200 per 1000 cu. m. Deputy chairman of the Gazprom management board Valery Golubev discussed the estimate placed on Beltransgaz by ABN Amro Bank on Friday as well. Gazprom is prepared to soften its position in exchange for purchasing the Belarusian gas transit company at an acceptable price. Russian Prime Minister declined all bilateral meetings on Friday and restricted himself to generalities in general discussions.

Lukashenko called for members "not to rush" to reform the CIS when he opened Friday's meeting. While that would look like a position favorable to Russia at first glance, what Lukashenko really wanted was a return to the "old version" of the CIS and especially to the 1994 free-trade zone agreement, under which, Lukashenko holds, CIS member states should be able to buy natural gas at domestic Russian prices.

Lukashenko discussed access to natural gas with Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and officially suggested that Ukraine and Belarus form a bloc to guarantee mutual energy security and for joint negotiations with Gazprom on lowering gas prices. Lukashenko expressed willingness to take extreme measures to create an alliance between the two regimes, including forming a political alliance with Ukraine, whose government is considered anti-Russian, similar to the alliance Belarus formed with Russia in 1995. Lukashenko even took the first step on Friday by supporting all Ukrainian proposals for the upcoming summit, including on trade, a troubled area of Ukrainian-Russian relations in recent years.

"Belarus and Ukraine, and other republics too, need results," Lukashenko said on Friday. "If it's energy, let's agree on what we can do about energy: If Moldova and Georgia have issues, let's settle them." Georgian Deputy Prime Minister Georgy Baramidze did have issues with Russia, and he presented them in a long speech that concluded by urging the CIS prime ministers to "assess negatively the actions of Russian peacekeepers in the Tskhinvali region and in Abkhazia."

The key issue on the agenda when the CIS presidents meet on November 28 will be Kazakh President Noursultan Nazarbaev's CIS reform proposal. Nazarbaev is insisting that the energy-producing countries of the commonwealth be given greater weight, that is all of the energy-producing countries, not just Russia. The Kazakh representative in Minks on Friday refrained from commenting on Lukashenko's proposals, but paid close attention to them. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili may express his own ideas on CIS reform at the summit. Lukashenko's ideas may change substantially in the two days remaining before the summit.

Petr Netreba

Source:

http://www.kommersant.com/p725049/r_527/CIS_summit_Alexander_Lukashenko/