BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

10/11/2006

Lukashenko continues crackdown, as EU rejects sanctions

By Tammy Lynch, ISCIP, Boston University

On October 12, a European Union trade committee decided not to suspend Belarus from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). (1) Had they done so, preferential tariffs on goods traded with the EU would have been eliminated. Now, Belarus will continue to receive the same preferential trade treatment as countries like Turkey and Ukraine.

Two weeks later, the European Parliament awarded Belarusian opposition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich its Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. The prize, which includes a 50,000 Euro award, recognizes "outstanding achievements in the fight to protect freedom of thought and expression against intolerance, fanaticism and hatred."(2)

The contrast between these two decisions is stark. Despite regularly and loudly criticizing Belarus for human rights abuses, despite decisions to freeze the bank accounts of Belarusian officials and extend visa bans on dozens its leaders, and despite ongoing questions about Belarus' involvement in both human and weapons trading, the EU chose to avoid what would amount to minimal trade sanctions.

The decision of the EU not to remove Belarus from the GSP followed a year-long investigation that found significant violations of International Labor Conventions. Following this investigation, the European Commission recommended that trade preferences be removed. "The EU has to recognize," said one Commission member, "that this regime is carrying out flagrant abuses." (3) At the start of the investigation, EU External Relations Commissioner Benito Ferrero-Waldner said, "Our grave concerns about trade union rights in Belarus have led to an investigation into alleged violations of freedom of association and also the right to collective bargaining, as defined in the ILO Conventions, especially within the framework of the GSP." (4)

However, Belarus' closest neighbors-and ironically those countries that have most criticized it for human rights abuses-refused to back the sanctions, enabling Belarus to declare victory over the EU.

Poland, Latvia and Lithuania suggested that the move would (a) undermine support for the EU within Belarus (b) harm the Belarusian people, and (c) damage cross-border business links.

These three arguments are shaky, at best. In particular, the possibility that removing Belarus from the GSP would undermine support for the EU within the country is difficult to defend. President Lukashenko, who controls all media, has done a superb job of demonizing the EU and its membership on his own. He needs no help from the EU.

There are, of course, large numbers of Belarusians who aspire to closer ties with Europe and even possible EU membership in the future. Milinkevich is among them. But Milinkevich repeatedly has expressed his desire for the EU to penalize Belarus for its domestic and foreign policies. In fact, Milinkevich traveled to several European capitals following the presidential election to advocate for tough sanctions against Belarus. To do so, he said, would be "important morally" for the country's embattled opposition leaders. Removing Belarus from the GSP would have increased the organization's stature in the eyes of those most supportive of it. (5)

Additionally, the suggestions that Belarusians would be harmed by the sanctions seems not entirely supportable. It is true that certain Belarusian officials and businesses may be affected. But, most Belarusians do not benefit from such businesses-which receive support from the government, and which concentrate wealth in a very few hands. The number of businesses on the territory of the three neighbors that would be affected also appears limited.

Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are Belarus' third, fourth and fifth largest trading partners, respectively, behind Russia and Ukraine. Conversely, Belarus does not rank high among the major trading partners for the three countries. Poland's largest trading partners are Germany, Italy, Russia, France and the Netherlands. Latvia sees the highest turnover with Lithuania, Estonia, Germany and Russia. And Lithuania's biggest trade partners are Russia, Latvia, Germany and Poland. (6)

These figures suggest that the question for Poland, Lithuania and Latvia actually may have had more to do with Belarus' main partner (and sometime protector) Russia, than with their own relations with Belarus.

The three may have been handicapped by their precarious trade position within the EU. A number of challenging trade discussions are ongoing within the organization and pushing this issue could have led to more difficult negotiations in a number of others. But, should Russia quietly have pressed this issue on Belarus' behalf, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia may have had little choice but to consider the issue carefully.

Both Lithuania and Poland are negotiating with Russia over gas prices for the coming year, and Lithuania already has been told to expect a major increase. Latvia is facing continuing pressure over what Russia terms its mistreatment of the Russian minority. All three have watched the increasing trade wars between Russia and Georgia, Russia and Moldova, and Russia and Ukraine. Russia has blocked imports of everything from beef to wine to bottled water from these countries, while simultaneously demanding increases in gas prices. Whole industries (particularly Moldovan and Georgian wine producers) are facing possible collapse, thanks to the loss of their biggest markets. Sanctions on Belarus may not have been worth it economically. But without this step, the Belarusian opposition is left to struggle on its own.

Just days after receiving the Sakharov Prize, the apartment of Milinkevich's press representative, Yulia Kotskaya, was searched by police. After finding nothing, they attempted to search the apartment of Kotskaya's mother, who refused to open the door when police could not produce a warrant. Nevertheless, Milinkevich's office told the Charter 97 website that the authorities forced their way in, destroying property during their "search."

Milinkevich recently served 15 days in prison after challenging Lukashenko in March's presidential election. Lukashenko's other opponent, Aleksandr Kazulin, was sentenced to 18 months of "hard labor" after participating in protests following the election. He currently is hospitalized after two weeks on a hunger strike. (7)

On 2 November, the 25-year-old leader of the Youth Front also was sentenced to 18 months of labor for "joining an unregistered group." Milinkevich said simply, "The authorities are afraid of young people, especially when they become organized." (8)

Several members of an independent Belarusian election monitoring group, Partnership, also continue to serve sentences. They were part of over 1,000 monitors and political opposition activists arrested during and following the election. An unknown number continue to be held.

The situation for Belarus' opposition leaders is becoming more difficult every day. But statements of condemnation from the EU are becoming more rare.

With the EU backing away from earlier threats to impose sanctions for violations of human rights, and support for this decision coming from countries previously supportive of Lukashenko's challengers, it seems the Belarusian opposition may be more isolated than ever. // ISCIP

Source Notes:

(1) "Belarus sanctions farce sheds light on EU machine," EUObserver.com, 1739 GMT, 12 Oct 06 via Lexis-Nexis.

(2) Website of The European Parliament, DG External Policies Human Rights Unit, The Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought via http://www.europarl.europa.eu/comparl/afet/droi/sakharov/inspiration_en.htm.

(3) "Belarus sanctions farce sheds light on EU machine," EUObserver.com, 1739 GMT, 12 Oct 06 via Lexis-Nexis.

(4) "EU against Belarus trade?," Euro Reporters, 14 Jul 05 via www.euro-reporters.com.

(5) See Charter-97 website, 19 May 06 via www.charter97.org and "Belarussian opposition leader on Poland's aid, EU and U.S. sanctions," PAP News Wire, 16 May 06 via Lexis-Nexis.

(6) CIA World Factbook via https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

(7) Belapan News Agency, 1017 GMT, 31 Oct 06; BBC Monitoring via Lexis-Nexis.

(8) "Belarusian Oppositionist Goes to Jail," Kommersant, No. 206, p. 10; Russian Press Digest via Lexis-Nexis.

Source:

http://politicom.moldova.org/stiri/eng/19962/