BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

31/10/2008

The Belarus conundrum

When the European Union chose to suspend its travel ban on Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko and his cronies last week, it sent yet another signal that the EU would be a better patron than Russia

This is a delicate place to tread, however, given Russia's traditionally jealous attitude towards its backyard. For Moscow, Belarus is "marked territory."

Moreover, Lukaszenko is an unreliable partner. Not as unreliable as Robert Mugabe or Kim Jong II, but nonetheless a full-fledged member of the self-serving dictator club. Known for his squeaky voice and iron fist, Lukashenko's disregard for democracy was etched into the very fabric of Belarusian Constitution by a 2004 amendment abolishing presidential term limits. If the West wants to deal with Belarus, it will have to deal with Lukashenko for as long as he is alive and able - he will not go gentle into that good night.

Regardless, both the EU and US are making a concerted effort to reorient Belarus towards the West. This is a herculean task as, in nearly every sense - culturally, economically, politically, linguistically and so on - the country is Russia-oriented and has been for hundreds of years. Whether they really have a chance is debatable, perhaps moot, but ironically it seems that Russia has been doing most of the work for them so far.

By invading Georgia in August, Russia sent a wave of fear through other former Soviet republics. For Lukashenko, whose relationship with the Kremlin has cooled over earlier disputes over energy and other things, the conflict in Georgia was especially alarming. According to media reports, following the events in Georgia the Belarusian regime sent clear signals to Western governments that it was ready to talk options.

But even if Lukashenko is sincere - and that's a big if - his 14 years in power have undermined or destroyed what few pillars of democracy the country had. The people are not sovereign, there is neither due process nor equality before the law and pluralism is practically unheard of. Belarus has some of the organs necessary for a healthy democracy, but they are shriveled and stunted by misuse.

Given these internal problems, Lukashenko's unreliability and the long shadow cast by the Kremlin, the point of the game the West is playing appears to be more about dividing adversaries than making new friends. This is sad - especially for the people of Belarus - but unlikely to change while Lukashenko remains in power.

Source:

http://www.wbj.pl/article-42988-the-belarus-conundrum.html

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