BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

08/10/2008

Will Tainted Elections Open the West's Doors for Belarus?

Marianna Gurtovnik

World Politics Review

On Sept. 28, Belarus, a country branded by the U.S. government as "the last true dictatorship" in Europe, held elections for its 110-seat lower house of parliament. Despite some improvements, independent observers said the voting was neither free, nor fair.

In an attempt to mend fences with the West, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had invited more than 900 international observers to monitor the voting, stressing his commitment to a democratic ballot. Seventy-six out of 276 registered candidates represented parties critical of the ruling regime, and a few opposition representatives were placed in precinct electoral committees -- a clear departure from the past when hardly any dissenters were allowed to run in, let alone supervise, elections. In August, Lukashenko released the last three opposition leaders remaining in jail. For a government consistently blasted by the West for persecuting political opponents, oppressing civil society, and rigging elections, the reversals were noteworthy.

In the aftermath of the 2006 presidential ballot that extended Lukashenko's 12-year rule for another five years, 27 nations of the European Union denied travel visas to Lukashenko and other senior officials in his cabinet, calling the elections non-transparent and unfair. Now the previously recalcitrant leader of Belarus hopes to improve relations with Europe and the United States as a way to hedge against Belarus' dependence on Russia, and was hoping to use the elections to do so. "We do not want to communicate with you through the iron curtain that you erected on the border with Belarus," Lukashenko said in a pre-election interview, referring to political isolation his country faces from some of its neighbors. "[S]ince you said that parliamentary elections ought to take place for [cooperation in] this direction [to happen], we have opened the country for you," he added, claiming that the vote would be "unprecedentedly democratic and transparent."

According to observers, Lukashenko's advances to the West are driven by Belarus' recent energy-related disputes with Russia. Last year, the Russian government revoked the preferential rates at which it supplied natural gas to Belarus, making Lukashenko nervous about the implications for the Belarusian economy. The president reportedly hopes to leverage Belarus' status as a transit point for Russian gas flowing to Europe to acquire European support in negotiating a better deal for Belarus with the Russians.

Officials in Belarus were also unnerved by Russia's August 2008 military operation in South Ossetia and Georgia, which they interpreted as an expression of Russia's expansionist ambitions. Lukashenko hesitated to approve the Russian intervention, and ultimately refrained from recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another breakaway republic of Georgia, saying he would let the new national legislature weigh in on the issue.

To the president's critics, however, the latest electoral improvements are not nearly enough. The opposition accused authorities of forcing citizens to vote in early balloting, and of tampering with ballots in the process. While early balloting is legally allowed, it has reportedly occurred with no independent observers present. According to a report from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), observers were also prevented from monitoring the counting of the ballots. The group also condemned the state-controlled media's virtual blackout of the political opposition, with 90 percent of coverage devoted to President Lukashenko. According to the OSCE's report, voting "fell short of OSCE commitments for democratic elections," taking place "in a strictly controlled environment with a barely visible campaign."

Preliminary results indicate that no opposition candidate garnered enough votes to be elected; final election results are to be announced in the next few days.

It remains to be seen whether Lukashenko's limited concessions will be enough to win over the EU, which is trying to balance its human rights concerns with a growing sense of urgency -- especially among Eastern European member states -- to counter Russia in the aftermath of its invasion of Georgia. But as a first step in that process, Belarus seems to have accomplished its objective. Belarus' Foreign Minister Sergei Martynov has been invited to a sideline meeting at the upcoming EU foreign ministers' summit on Oct. 13, and some sanctions on travel visas and student exchanges may be relaxed as a symbolic gesture. But any long-term shift will probably depend on Lukashenko's willingness to distance himself from his human rights record and Russia, although not necessarily in that order.

Marianna Gurtovnik is a freelance analyst based in the United States. She covers governance reforms, foreign policy, and civil society developments in the Newly Independent States.

Source:

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=2756

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