BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

15/10/2007

Belarusian Opposition Caught Up in the Middle

The Belarusian opposition's rally which passed on a Minsk square with the name of Indian city of Bangalore might look like a story from anti-utopia. Or like a modern parody on the epic salt march under the leadership of Mahatma Gandhi, father of new India and of modern non-violent protest rallies, or velvet revolutions. Without any outer support, Gandhi gathered a sea of people under his banner, and crushed the British colonial regime he hated by means of a civil disobedience campaign. Leaders of the Belarusian opposition can only dream of that success so far, despite all the outer support they get. It is no secret that the Belarusian opposition, avidly looking towards the West, is fractured and not numerous. It does not have mass support in the Belarusian agrarian-patriarchal society. Moreover, Alexander Lukashenka intends taking all measures necessary to suppress any fermenting.

So, what do the Belarusian oppositionists, and the EU and the U.S. that support them, hope for? As for Poland, that plays an active part in Belarusian events, it does not think the weakness of local opposition guarantees that Lukashenka's regime will remain unsinkable. Warsaw draws a parallel with the Communist Poland of the 1970s, where the opposition was very weak as well, the economic situation looked quite successful too, but it did not, however, prevent Solidarity from coming and the following collapse of the regime. Certainly, upon closer view, Poland's situation of Edward Gierek times, which had the same factor of the Catholic church, looks strongly unlike the current situation in Belarus. Yet, Poland now focuses not on differences, but on common features, judging that Lukashenka's regime is still afloat largely due to the information vacuum, the absence of free mass media, and other attributes of a closed society. In these conditions, the rallies like the one on Sunday are viewed as attempts to break through the information blockade and to draw nearer the collapse of "the last European dictator". Afterwards, they will be able to proudly proclaim the triumph of democratic ideals on the former territory of Rech Pospolita. That is about the same way how the Belarusian situation is viewed in the Baltic states now making up 'new Europe'. Moreover, both Poland and the Baltic states, in their struggle against the Lukashenka regime, see Moscow, and not Minsk, as their chief enemy. That is their way of preventing Russia's expansionism in Europe, they explain.

As for the Western world's other part -- the U.S., it is not very interested in Lukashenka's fate, actually. However, the thesis about "the last European dictator" allows fighting for the strategically important Belarusian territory, which is acquiring more and more importance in the Moscow-Washington competition on the post-Soviet space. By the way, Belarus is important for Washington due to a whole number of reasons: energy wars between Russia and the West, and the ongoing tug-of-war concerning the issue of deploying US missile defense elements in Eastern Europe.

Here is the main paradox of the Belarusian situation: the local opposition seems to be never able to win, but it will also be never allowed to lose.

Sergei Strokan, observer

Source:

http://www.kommersant.com/p814973/r_520/Belarus_in_focus_of_other_countries_great_expectations/