BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

October 18, 2005

Fearing Ukrainian-Style Uprising, Belarus Cracks Down

By STEVEN LEE MYERS

MINSK, Belarus, Oct. 14 - Ten men gathered in a dim three-room apartment one recent evening to plan the unseating of this country's autocratic president, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko.

James Hill for The New York Times

Aleksandr Milinkevich, the leader of a newly formed Belarussian opposition coalition, in its headquarters, a small, run-down apartment in Minsk.

They have little money, no slogans, no songs and, so far, no color like the orange that thousands rallied around during the popular uprising last year in Ukraine.

What they have is a hope, admittedly slight, that the wave of democracy that washed over Ukraine and other former Soviet republics in the last two years might next hit here.

"Lukashenko has exhausted the possibility of strengthening his power," said Aleksandr Milinkevich, a physicist who leads an improbable coalition of politicians and civic leaders mounting an even more improbable challenge in the election for president next year.

"Sometimes he thinks if he raises wages a bit, people will love him again, but not everything is measured by bread and salo," he said, referring to the salted pork fat that is consid ered a delicacy in this part of the world. "There is such a notion as human dignity."

Few here or abroad believe that Belarus's beleaguered opposition can win the election, expected before July. But with American and European support, its effort is shaping up as a new struggle over democracy in what was once the Soviet Union. It is likely to inflame tensions not only with Mr. Lukashenko's government, but also with that of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who opposes Western efforts to democratize former Soviet republics.

"There will be a road to democracy in Belarus," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice declared in April after meeting with Mr. Lukashenko's opponents in neighboring Lithuania, calling his government "the last dictatorship in the center of Europe."

It is hard to overestimate how difficult that road will be.

Mr. Lukashenko, first elected as a corruption-fighting reformer in 1994, has ruled this country of 10 million with ever increasing authoritarianism, weakening the other branches of government and stifling independent news media and businesses. He is able to run because of a referendum last year lifting the constitutional limits on his term, a vote that was widely denounced as illegitimate.

When people gathered then on October Square in Minsk to protest that referendum, police officers in riot gear swiftly suppressed them, beating and arresting dozens. They have done so repeatedly during all public manifestations of dissent ever since.

"The Belarussian authorities are particularly concerned with preventing any small thing from becoming a big thing," a senior diplomat here said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of diplomatic protocol. "They're not going to let people put up tents in October Square."

As it has in the months before previous elections, Mr. Lukashenko's government has intensified efforts to stifle any voices of opposition.

A former student, Nikita Sasim, when asked about his arrest, replied, "Which one?" He was expelled from a university last year, like dozens of others, and served 10 days in prison after joining the underground youth movement Zubr. Last month he was beaten at an unauthorized rally. On Oct. 7 he was arrested after posting anti-Lukashenko leaflets and held over the weekend by the secret service, still known, as in Soviet times, as the K.G.B.

"The pressure from the authorities," he said, "is becoming stronger."

Mr. Lukashenko has closed independent organizations by forcing them to reregister with the government, then denying permission to those deemed disloyal. This summer security forces raided the Union of Poles, a group that represents the ethnic Polish minority, prompting a dispute with Poland.

A decree by the president requires all government employees - in a country where the state controls 80 percent of the economy - to work under one-year contracts, which dissenters say are used to enforce loyalty.

The state media distribution monopoly last month ordered newspaper stands to stop selling the last independent daily newspaper, Narodnaya Bolya, or People's Will. The order, denounced by the European Union as an assault on a free press, has left its survival in doubt.

"They are trying to mop up the media, so that the voters can receive information from only one source," said the editor, Iosif Seredich.

Mr. Milinkevich, the opposition leader, said the events in Ukraine last year, when thousands poured into the streets to protest a rigged election for president, inspired many Belarussians. But he noted the essential ingredients of the Orange Revolution that are lacking here.

"They had television, radio, newspapers," he said. "They had oligarchs who supported them. Our rich businessmen who support us are either in prison or abroad."

Mr. Lukashenko's opponents do have support abroad. The United States has pledged $5 million to support democracy in Belarus, but it has not detailed how the money would be spent. The European Union is paying the German radio channel Deutsche Welle to broadcast into the country, prompting complaints of cold-war-like tactics from Belarus and Russia.

"The West will not spare any expenses," Mr. Lukashenko said earlier this year. A popular uprising like Ukraine's, he said, is "the last thing that we need."

There are indications, though, that external pressure - and the continued isolation of Mr. Lukashenko and several other officials, who are prohibited from traveling in Europe - may be having some impact.

Mr. Lukashenko agreed last month to allow 800 representatives of the opposition to meet in a cultural center in Minsk. After meeting on Oct. 1 and 2, delegates from across the political spectrum, from Communists to liberals, selected Mr. Milinkevich as a unified opposition candidate.

Mr. Milinkevich, a professor and television commentator, once served as a deputy mayor in Grodno and then headed an independent organization, which Mr. Lukashenko's government banned in 2001.

Belarussians, he said, are ready for a change in leadership, something suggested by opinion polls. The main challenge is to overcome people's fear of openly opposing Mr. Lukashenko's state.

"We are only for a peaceful election," said Mr. Milinkevich, who has been arrested and fined but has not led the street protests. "We do not want blood. And if we have to come out to defend our choice, then we shall go out on the streets, but without stones or pistols."

For all its control, he added, Mr. Lukashenko's government has fissures in popular support and in the support of those now on its side.

"If 100,000 people come out on the streets, I don't think that the government will stand," he said. "One general, during an illegal rally in Minsk, said if you come out with 2,000, we will continue to beat you, as we have. But if we see that 100,000 come out in the street, then we will join you."

Source:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/18/international/europe/18belarus.html