BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

Sunday, Oct. 09, 2005

Taking It To The Streets

Will Belarus' president turn to an "Orange Revolution" to cling to power?

By PAUL QUINN-JUDGE

Sometime next year, opposition to Belarussian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka will burst out onto the streets in Ukrainian-style mass protests. At least, that's what Alyaksandr Milinkevich predicts - and he plans to lead the demonstrations against Lukashenka, who presides over what U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice calls Europe's "last true dictatorship." But first, Milinkevich will challenge Lukashenka in the presidential elections next July.

"The situation here is somewhat different [from Ukraine], but the scenarios are similar everywhere when it comes to dictatorships," he told Time. "Dictatorial regimes never admit defeat." If the President is running scared, it doesn't show. Vladimir Konoplev, a prominent Lukashenka ally, says he hasn't even heard of Milinkevich: "The name doesn't ring any bells." Some opposition activists fear that the 58-year-old physicist will be overlooked by voters, too.

Pollsters say 25% of the electorate will support Lukashenka; another 20% are leaning toward him. Yet that may not stop Lukashenka from staging what the U.S. State Department calls "manipulated elections" and "judicial and extrajudicial measures" to secure a victory. Lukashenka refutes such charges. But if the opposition does cry foul, the presidential poll may end up being decided on the streets.

Source:

http://www.time.com/time/europe/magazine/article/0,13005,901051017-1115620,00.html