BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

11/06/2008

Alexander Lukashenko to Take His ODIHR Test

He is expected to demonstrate evidence of political thaw

Yesterday the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) delegation arrived in Minsk. They'll stay in the city for a couple of days and discuss the terms of its participation in the observers' mission during the parliamentary elections planned for this autumn. The government of Belarus has repeatedly claimed that they wish the forthcoming voting would be rendered legitimate, and it even hasn't ruled out the possibility of opposition's getting a few mandates. The invitation of the ODIHR mission can become the major evidence showing that the government is serious about that. At the same time Belarus' opposition leaders are ready to play up to the authorities in their bid to make the elections seem competitive.

ODIHR is here

ODIHR technical group, headed by Britain's Gerald Mitchell, arrived in Minsk on Monday evening. The official part of the visit started yesterday: the European experts were received in the Belarusian Foreign Office and the republican Central Electoral Committee. The aim of the delegation is giving its assessment of the work of the mission's observers during the parliamentary elections planned for September 28, and determining whether the ODIHR will send its observers to Belarus (if yes, in what form).

ODIHR observers are truly famous for their long-term missions. They arrive in a country a few months ahead of the voting day to watch all the stages of electoral campaign. Last year this principle caused a raw between the ODIHR and the Russian government: the observers refused to come to the Duma elections referring to the fact that Moscow deliberately procrastinated with the official invitation of the mission.

Minsk's current behaviour means that the government here is not going to follow the Russian scenario of the neutralization of the ODIHR. At least Head of the Belarusian Electoral Committee Lidya Yermoshina assured Kommersant yesterday that ODIHR observers are always welcomed in Belarus. "The head of state has said more than once that observers from all organizations where Belarus has membership must be invited to our country. And in these terms the present assessment mission of the ODIHR is an ordinary procedure that precedes the arrival of this organization's observers," Ms Yermoshina told Kommersant.

Nevertheless, little has been done apart from that rhetoric. Officials with the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, whose invitation is a necessary condition of international monitoring missions' presence in the country, told Kommersant that the future of the ODIHR observers will be decided on "in its time." The officials refused to give any further commentary.

For all that, Belarus' government still has the time to determine its position and say whether it wants to see international observers in its elections (these observers have never rendered any electoral campaign in the country democratic). The thing is, even the date of the voting hasn't been determined yet. According to Ms Yermoshina, the Electoral Committee has sent the draft of the corresponding presidential decree to the Administration of the head of state, and now they are waiting for a reply.

Turning to the opposition

Observers point out that the Belarusian government hasn't been that hard on the opposition these days. For example, a project of creating a powerful pro-presidential party basing on the "Belaya Rus" movement has been frozen. The movement was expected to be tested during the current parliamentary elections, and by 2011 it would have turned into a full-fledged party in power. But the constituent session of this organization, where all Belarusian officials were obliged to have membership in, has been suspended without any reasons being given.

The construction of that party system was terminated after President Lukashenko said in April that membership in the "Belaya Rus" can't be imposed on a person. "If we find out that some mad bosses make their subordinates join it, they won't stay in office any longer," the President threatened adding, "I have nothing to do with this organization. Because of the principles I have. I was member of the Communist Party, and didn't quit it. So I won't join the ""Belaya Rus.""

When speaking with Kommersant, Head of Minsk's Sociological Laboratory Novak Andrey Vardomatsky explained the behavior of the authorities by the fact that now they don't need any party "locomotive" because there is the vertical of power "that executes all decisions." "There are attempts to make believe they are liberal. The government released five political prisoners out of six, declared their intention to draw international investments and said they are going to conduct dialogue with the West. It all lacked four years ago (2004 parliamentary elections were held in Belarus - Kommersant). I call it reload," Mr Vardomatsky stated.

Mr Lukashenko's May interview to Reuters should be reputed the key sign of the government's good intentions. Surprisingly, the Belarusian President showed much care for the opposition promising that the current parliamentary elections in his country "will be nothing worse than those in the EU." "I demand that all be bodies hold the elections so that you couldn't reproach us and say that the voting doesn't comply with the European standards. If there are a few opposition MPs in the Parliament, they won't spoil it. They will never have the majority. But I would emphasize that I am afraid that they won't manage to get into the Parliament," Mr Lukashenko stated then.

However, Lukashenko's critics are convinced that the Belarusian leader is utterly pragmatic. "Lukashenko has been seeking for the parliament to be acknowledged legitimate by the West. He wishes Belarus' MPs would restore their special status with the PACE delegation - something they were denied 1996 as Lukashenko appointed MPs without holding elections at all," Svetlana Kalinkina, editor-in-chief of Belarus' opposition paper "People's Will," told Kommersant.

Boycott

Whatever the reason, the illusion of a political thaw has inspired the Belarusian opposition, which was determined to deprive the government of the opportunity to pretend they have competitive elections. A month ago the leaders of opposition parties would declare their intention to boycott the electoral campaign, which sort of embarrassed their opponents. Secretary of the Central Electoral Committee Nikolay Lozovik even had to persuade the opposition to change their mind. "Overriding the voting, political parties give up their main end - coming to power. If the opposition manages to unite, it'll be beneficial for it," Mr Lozovik appealed to them.

The opposition followed the Electoral Committee and at the end of May its leaders convened in Warsaw, where they buried the idea of a boycott. Opposition activists of 11 parties, including those officially banned, negotiated the setting up of the United Democratic Forces (UDF), adopted a list of 110 candidates (which corresponds with the number of seats in the parliament), and agreed upon the slogan of their campaign: "Government for the people, not people for the government!"

"Taking everything into account, we decided to participate in the electoral campaign," one of the leaders of the UDF, Chairperson of Belarus' civil party Anatoly Lebedko explained to Kommersant yesterday. "It's important for us to convey our ideas to the people when we're given five minutes of TV air once in five years. It's important that people recognize democratic forces after these elections. The larger the base today, the more chances we'll have in 2011 (that year presidential elections will be held - Kommersant)".

Though making this kind of concession, the opposition is trying to save face. They urge that their representatives be included in local electoral committees to control the counting of ballots. Unless it's done, the adversaries of Mr Lukashenko threaten to resume the idea of a boycott. "If the authorities don't include our people in the committees, it'll serve as a signal for us to recall our candidates. The intrigue is now in that whether the 110 MPs will be elected by the people or appointed by the government," Mr Lebedko stressed. "So, we'll either appeal to the people to vote, or they'll take to the streets".

Source:

http://www.kommersant.com/p902139/r_527/ODIHR_commission_arrives_in_Minsk/

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