BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

Tuesday, 26 April 2005

Moscow welcomes beleaguered Belarus leader

ISN SECURITY WATCH (25/04/05) - Russian President Vladimir Putin offered warm support to visiting Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka on Friday as both leaders pointedly ignored criticism of Lukashenka's regime voiced a day earlier by the US and the EU.

Speaking during a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Thursday called for political change in Belarus, which she referred to as "the last true dictatorship in the center of Europe". She also said the country's 2006 presidential election would offer "an excellent opportunity" for voters to have their say.

At the start of their talks in the Kremlin, Putin told Lukashenka he was welcome in Moscow. In response, Lukashenka thanked Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who had defended the Belarusian leader at the NATO summit.

"As president of Belarus, I want to thank you, Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin], and comrade Sergei Lavrov for the huge support you are giving us at a difficult time for us in our history as a sovereign and independent nation," Lukashenka said. "What Vladimir Vladimirovich said will decide the conceptual aspect of my fate."

The latest demonstration of rapprochement between Minsk and Moscow came after Lavrov had rejected Rice's criticism of Lukashenka's authoritarian regime. Also speaking at the NATO summit, he rebuked Rice for her stance on Belarus, interpreting it as readiness to support the removal of Lukashenka from the outside.

"The democratic process and the process of reform cannot be imposed from outside," Lavrov said. Speaking in English, Lavrov also bluntly accused the West of wanting to foment "regime change" in Belarus.

EU security chief Javier Solana on Thursday seconded Rice's criticism of Lukashenka, telling the NATO summit that there was "no doubt that the time has come for change".

Rather than responding directly to the criticism voiced by Rice and Solana, Putin and Lukashenka pledged to continue moving towards unifying their two nations, stressing the need to boost military, security, and diplomatic cooperation.

Earlier last week, military officials tentatively agreed to set up a joint military communications and control system.

The moves to build stronger ties between the two countries appeared to be an attempt to head off a possible revolt against Lukashenka similar to last year's "Orange Revolution" in neighboring Ukraine and the protests that led to the ouster of Georgia's Eduard Shevardnadze and Kyrgyzstan's Askar Akaev.

But Russian political analysts were skeptical about the chances of a Ukrainian-style revolution in Belarus anytime soon, referring to the fact that the Belarusian opposition is not represented in the nation's political elite and would not facilitate a smooth transition of power.

Analysts also point out that Lukashenka has expelled all international watchdogs and most foreign non-governmental organizations from Belarus, and has cut short channels that the West might use to support the opposition.

With the Belarus opposition being outspokenly pro-Western and anti-Russian, Russia will likely provide stronger support to the incumbent Lukashenka in the case of a revolution attempt, than it did in Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan, analysts said.

However, the strongest deterrent for the revolt in Belarus, they concurred, was Lukashenka's readiness to use brute force against protesters.

(By Nabi Abdullaev in Moscow)

Source:

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=11165