BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

07/03/2006

Bielorussia - Radiografia del consenso. Lukashenko domina la societa con la leva della paura

Una societa dominata dalla paura, dove la gente difficilmente e recalcitrante a esprimere un proprio giudizio sulla politica locale, per timore di ritorsioni da parte del Kgb, il fedele guardiano del regime di Aleksander Lukashenko, presidente delle Bielorussia, l'ultima dittatura d'Europa. Tutto cio emerge da un sondaggio diffuso a fine febbraio dalla fondazione slovacca Pontis Ivo, uno dei principali istituti demoscopici dell'Europa centro-orientale

No a un'altra Ucraina. Fiducia nelle promesse di Lukashenko

I risultati del sondaggio indicano che la societa civile e ostaggio della paura e che proprio la paura sia il fattore che fornisce robustezza al regime di Lukashenko. Ultimamente, la stampa europea ha dato risalto alla possibilita che Aleksander Milinkevich, candidato principale dell'opposizione, organizzi dopo il voto una serie di contestazioni di piazza, sulla base del precedente ucraino. Cosa che - stando al sondaggio di Pontis Ivo - risulta smentita. Solamente il 43% delle 1095 persone intervistate ritiene che la piazza sia uno strumento valido per rimarcare l'opposizione al regime. Il 36%, invece, si e detto favorevole allo sciopero. Il 79% degli intervistati accetta la presenza degli osservatori internazionali. Alta la percentuale (65%) di chi considera 'calma' la situazione politica interna e di chi ha fiducia nelle promesse economiche del governo (81%).

Lukashenko al 55%

Dal sondaggio risulta che la percentuale di voti che dovrebbe andare al presidente uscente Lukashenko si attesta sul 55%. Altri sondaggi, condotti dall'istituto di ricerca fondato da Oleg Manaev, 'cacciato' in Lituania perche poco propenso a truccare - come il regime avrebbe voluto - i risultati delle rilevazioni demoscopiche da lui e dal suo staff effettuate, indicano una percentuale di consenso inferiore e prevedono l'ipotesi ballottaggio. I 1095 cittadini intervistati dai ricercatori di Pontius Ivo ritengono comunque che le elezioni saranno probabilmente viziati da brogli e scorrettezze.

QE pubblica un estratto del sondaggio realizzato da Pontis Ivo. Per scaricare l'intera rilevazione, vai al seguente indirizzo:

http://www.ivo.sk/politicka_klima_bielorusko.pdf

Belarus Public Opinion Survey1

by the Slovakia-Belarus Task Force

Issued February 21, 2006

This confidential polling memorandum was commissioned by the Slovak-Belarus Task Force and implemented by the Bratislava-based Pontis Foundation and the Bratislava based Institute for Public Affairs, in cooperation with Belarusian NGOs and a Minsk based research agency conducting pre-election polling. This memorandum is not for media distribution.

The representative sample encompassed 1,095 people, and the fieldwork was carried out from January 20 through January 27, 2006, when the collection of signatures was completed, but the registration of the candidates was still ahead. The main aim of the survey was to bring relevant information for and about the civic pre-election campaigns, as well as to measure the public mood and expectations toward the presidential elections scheduled for March 19, 2006.

The overall objective of the Slovakia-Belarus Task Force is to establish a framework for greater cooperation between Slovakia, as a new EU member state, and Belarusian democratic forces, to transfer policy reform know-how from Slovakia to Belarus, and to share experience between civil societies of the two countries.

Summary of Findings

Public mood in Belarus is currently characterized by the prevailing adaptation of citizens to the current economic and political situation, where feelings of enthusiasm, but also of deprivation, are rather rare. Most people do not expect that the change of the election term could have any impact on the election results. Trust in the fairness of the election is relatively low. Only one third of Belarusians believes that the election will be completely free and fair. Those respondents who doubt that the upcoming presidential election could fulfill the high standards of freedom and fairness prefer "softer preventive methods" such as such independent monitoring of the electoral process (79%); parallel counting (71%), and exit polling (63%) to the more radical methods of collective protest such as mass protest rallies (43%) and general strike (36%).

Most people in Belarus would appreciate if NGOs could monitor the electoral process and inform citizens about independent or opposition candidates, while more than fourth of them (28%) even thinks that NGOs should mobilize citizens to protest in case of the fraudulent election. However, the activities of NGOs have low visibility in Belarusian society so far. According to almost all Belarusians, the ideal president should first and foremost contribute to their decent living standards. The state sovereignty of Belarus and democracy should be the next items on the list of the president's crucial goals and values.

The results indicate that before the election campaign period, most people do not expect the election to become a "watershed event," but rather suppose continuity in their country's development. Only 17% of Belarusians expect mass protests as a reaction to a fraudulent election. This makes the mobilization of atomized individuals much more complicated and challenging task.

Pontis Commentary

Analyzing public opinion polls in Belarus is complicated by the wide-spread fear of repression and by resignation of many people inside the country. To give a more comprehensive picture on current trends in society, Pontis is trying to raise other - nonquantitative - reference points in addition to the polling analysis.

Due to the increased level of fear and state propaganda before the elections, the results of this poll correspond neither with results from previous independent public opinion polls, nor with the actual number of the signatures that the opposition candidates have collected.

The public opinion poll was conducted on January 20 - 27, 2006 when most of the civic campaign was about to launch and the single candidate Milinkevich was just finishing the collection of signatures. In the meantime, both campaigns might have contributed to changing the atmosphere in society and breaking the information vacuum imposed by the regime. Anecdotal reports from Minsk suggest that politics is returning to everyday talks, while the "increasing ratings" of the challenger are one of the most frequent topics. Such a possible development suggests the challenger himself is becoming the "trigger issue" before the elections.

High turnout suggests that people are aware of the importance of elections, but before the start of the actual presidential campaign are not yet convinced that it will bring any significant change. In the current isolated conditions of Belarus, the next five weeks could have more determinate impact on further development of the country than any survey could predict at this moment.

Source:

http://www.quadranteuropa.it/articolo.php?idarticolo=6734&idcategoriamain=6