BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

26/02/2009

Belarus: Moscow Tightens its Grip

Summary

The Belarusian Foreign Ministry has stated that the European Union's plan for expanding the Eastern Partnership initiative should entail "equitable conditions for all its participants." While the European Union would like to include Belarus in this initiative in order to strengthen ties to its eastern neighbor and pull Minsk away from Russia's influence, Moscow has been making substantive deals with Belarus to make sure that does not happen anytime soon.

Analysis

The Belarusian Foreign Ministry issued a statement Feb. 26 that the European Union's proposed Eastern Partnership initiative, which outlines the union's relations with neighboring states on its periphery, should offer "equitable conditions for all its participants." This statement comes as the European Union returns to its discussion of the proposed initiative, which would expand the scope of its current European Neighborhood Policy (ENP), specifically to include the former Soviet states of Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Belarus especially has been a focus of these discussions, as it is only a provisional participant in the ENP. Furthermore, Belarus holds a geopolitically crucial location in Europe, serving as the staging ground for Russian force projection into Central Europe. Often referred to as the last remaining dictatorship of Europe, Belarus has had a largely antagonistic relationship with the European Union due to the close relationship between Minsk and Moscow as well as the European Union's constant condemnation of Belarus' alleged undemocratic nature and frequent human rights abuses.

But certain EU countries - particularly the eastern countries and former Soviet satellites like Poland and the Czech Republic - would like to strengthen ties to Belarus in order to lure it away from Russia's influence as Moscow reasserts itself. Not all the countries in the bloc share this enthusiasm, however, and some important upcoming summits will show whether all EU members can get on the same page. On March 19, the European Union is slated to discuss the future of the ENP, which could be expanded to form a more comprehensive agreement (the aforementioned Eastern Partnership). On May 7, a large EU summit is scheduled that could see the European Union attempt to entice Belarus with the benefits that accompany inclusion in the ENP - such as visa-free travel within the European Union and reduced tariffs in dealing with EU markets - by formally offering Minsk membership in the Eastern Partnership.

However, it will not be easy to charm Belarus away from Russia, as Moscow has been making a number of substantive deals with Minsk, and these agreements likely will solidify in the coming weeks. STRATFOR sources in Moscow have reported that Belarus next week will be receiving the second installment of a US$2 billion loan granted by Russia in the fall of 2008. These sources have also reported that another loan of 100 billion rubles (US$2.8 billion), which Minsk requested last month but which the Russian Finance Ministry dismissed at the time, is being reconsidered and most likely will be approved.

The Russo-Belarusian relationship is not just about cash; more solid ties will keep a Russian presence on the ground in Belarus. Russia has been increasing its stake in its neighbor's energy industry, and a preliminary agreement between Belarus state energy company Beltransgaz and Russia's Gazprom indicates that Minsk will have to pay no more than US$150 per thousand cubic meters (tcm) of natural gas in 2009, barely above last year's rates (as compared to European prices of more than $400 per tcm). At a time when the global economic recession is sweeping across Europe and industrial output is plummeting, such financial assistance is simply too valuable for the economically isolated Belarus to pass up.

Along with the financial and energy assistance Russia is granting Belarus, there has been a parallel increase in military cooperation between the two neighbors. Russia announced that it would form a regional air defense network with Belarus as part of a wider integrated network of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), complete with fighter jets, anti-aircraft units and support units. Also, a large Russian force will be stationed near the Belarus border - and a handful of soldiers will be in Belarus itself - as Moscow expands the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to maintain a rapid-reaction force, of which Belarus will be an integral part. This is doubly important because Belarus shares a border with Poland, which feels most threatened by an increase in Russian troop presence. Rumors have even circulated that on May 7, the same day the European Union could ask Minsk to join the Eastern Partnership, Belarus will recognize the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

So while the European Union issues rhetorical calls for things such as visa liberalization and expanding cultural ties to strengthen the bloc's partnership with Belarus, Russia has been forming comprehensive deals with its traditional ally on both the economic and military fronts. Though Minsk can be fickle and in the past its loyalty has depended on short-term deals and cash, putting Russian boots on the ground and expanding long-term energy ties represent firmer and more strategic moves by Moscow and indications that Belarus has no plans to break from Russia's orbit anytime soon. In any case, Moscow will do what it must to make sure that doesn't happen.

Source:

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090226_belarus_moscow_tightens_its_grip

Google
 


Partners:
Face.by Social Network
Face.by