BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

24/02/2009

Belarus: Economic crisis and the Russian bear factor

Perhaps I'm getting Marxist in my old age, but would it be wrong to suggest that economics is driving most things political in Belarus these days? That's to say, does the world economic crisis explain the very modest gestures in the direction of political liberalisation that have recently been taken in what is emphatically Europe's most tightly controlled state?

At the start of this year, with its economy tottering, Belarus devalued its currency by 20 per cent and negotiated a $2.5bn loan from the International Monetary Fund. Belarus has also secured a pledge of $2bn in credits from Russia, the giant neighbour from which it receives almost all its energy supplies at subsidised prices. Belarus has large debt repayments looming. The fact is, Belarus is in deep economic trouble and won't get out of it without help from the IMF, the European Union and - let this not be forgotten in Western countries - Russia.

At the same time, President Alexander Lukashenko has relaxed political controls a little bit, allowing two independent newspapers to be sold through the state-run distribution network and setting up public consultative councils on human rights and media freedom. Opposition activists in Minsk told me last week that these measures didn't add up to much and could be reversed at any moment. Moreover, two former political prisoners were rearrested earlier this month on what look like trumped-up charges of causing damage to property.

Nevertheless, EU policymakers have the impression that change - controlled change - may be on the horizon in Belarus. Some trace it to the appointment last July of one Vladimir Makey as the powerful head of Lukashenko's presidential administration. Makey is an interesting guy. For one thing, he is, so I'm told, of mixed Lithuanian-Scottish origin (is "Makey" the Cyrillic spelling of "Mackay"?). For another, he trained as a foreign linguist and served in the Soviet armed forces in the communist era. About much of the rest of his career his official biography is not so specific.

Neither Lukashenko nor Makey is going to turn Belarus into a pro-Western country. It makes absolutely no strategic sense for a small country that, geographically and culturally, is so close to Russia. But Russia's military smashing and de facto dismemberment of Georgia last August served as a wake-up call to Belarus's leaders. If they want their country to remain independent, they need to draw a bit closer to the EU. And that means introducing a degree of political reform.

Economics explains a lot. But in the case of Belarus, so does the Russian bear factor.

Source:

http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2009/02/belarus-economic-crisis-and-the-russian-bear-factor/

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