BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

Friday, February 11th, 2005 11:13 AM (PST)

Andrew Savchenko: Soviet vestige

The Providence Journal

(SH) - The recent presidential election in Ukraine had all the elements of a political drama: a competent challenger cheated out of his election victory by a thuggish opponent; widespread popular discontent; powerful but orderly street protests; a corrupt political clique finally retreating before the combined pressure of world public opinion and domestic protest; justice restored with a new election, bringing the democratic candidate to the presidency.

Against this background, Belarus, Ukraine's northern neighbor, seems to be not just stagnating but traveling back in time. The authoritarian apathy of Belarus contrasts sharply with Ukraine's democratic enthusiasm.

Around the time of Ukraine's telegenic revolution, Belarus had an important political event of its own. Last October, it held parliamentary elections and a constitutional referendum. As in Ukraine, the electoral process was crudely manipulated by the government. But unlike Ukraine, Belarus did not have widespread protests. Only small numbers of opposition supporters took to the streets, and they were promptly dispersed by riot police.

The Western media briefly noted the gloomy situation in Belarus and moved on to the much more exciting events in Ukraine. Meanwhile, construction of a quasi-Soviet state in Belarus continues.

Alexander Lukashenka, president of Belarus, rose to power on the wave of popular disappointment with chaos and corruption of the first years of post-Soviet restructuring. Elected in 1994, Lukashenka promised to end corruption, stabilize the political system and revive the crumbling economy.

Very soon it became apparent that he knew only one way to make good on his promises: a drastic concentration of political and economic controls in his own hands. In 1996, he convened a referendum that passed constitutional amendments facilitating the return to Soviet political practices. One of the amendments gave the office of president almost dictatorial power and reduced the legislature to a rubber-stamping institution. To sweeten the pill, the president's tenure was limited to two five-year terms.

Ten years of Lukashenka's presidency have transformed Belarus into an authoritarian political system, not dissimilar to Kim Jong Il's North Korea, Saddam Hussein's Iraq or Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. Belarus's regime is essentially a personal dictatorship with a veneer of quasi-socialist ideology, thickly glazed with populism.

Lukashenka's rule combines efficient repression of dissidents with paternalistic benevolence toward loyal subjects. The regime can afford paternalism owing to economic support from Russia. The country's economy is linked to Russia, which readily absorbs Belarus's manufactured goods and provides oil and natural gas at subsidized prices.

The special relationship with Russia is the most important factor in keeping the Lukashenka regime going. Lukashenka spent many years strengthening economic and political ties with Russia. Now these ties are his insurance policy, as he presents himself as an indispensable leader, capable of navigating the labyrinth of the union between Belarus and Russia.

The claim is quite plausible: Lukashenka is a chief architect of this labyrinth. Moreover, the Russian leadership seems to think that Lukashenka - his buffoonish persona notwithstanding - still serves Russia's interests in the region.

With Russia's support, the Lukashenka regime may continue indefinitely.

Internally, the regime is quite safe. Indeed, according to public-opinion polls, Lukashenka has remained the most popular politician for several years.

In fact, he is the only politician known to most Belarusians. The opposition cannot convey its message to the electorate, because almost all media outlets are controlled by the state. Opposition leaders who might become even marginally dangerous to the regime are imprisoned on trumped-up charges, or simply disappear under mysterious circumstances.

A dictator is fit for office as long as he is physically fit. Lukashenka, in his early 50s, has excellent health.

Until recently, the only obstacle to the indefinite continuation of his presidency was the constitutional provision limiting his term in office. And Lukashenka easily eliminated this obstacle.

Although opposition had been silenced, there remained some potential sources of independent public opinion - which the regime addressed with ruthless efficiency. Lukashenka's potential rivals among the government bureaucrats were either removed from office or imprisoned. Independent newspapers were closed or threatened with closure. The government closed the only independent university in Belarus, ensuring that the professors would spend time looking for jobs, not discussing the legality of the forthcoming referendum.

Meanwhile, in the state-controlled universities, the students were forced to study the ideology of the Belarus regime. There's no doubt that Lukashenka, a former political-indoctrination officer in the KGB, approved of this curricular innovation.

The organization of the referendum then ensured the desired outcome. The voting date was announced only five weeks before the referendum, leaving no time for the opposition to organize an anti-referendum campaign. Early voting provided many opportunities for widespread vote rigging. Several independent observers reported that before the voting had started on the day of the referendum, many polling stations already had boxes of voting booklets with the "Yes" having been checked. Free vodka and beer were distributed to the voters at the polling stations.

The Soviet-style voting resulted in a Soviet-style outcome: According to official data, more than 80 percent of all eligible voters voted for a constitutional amendment allowing Lukashenka to run for office again after his current term was over.

Two aspects of Belarus's political developments are especially disturbing.

First, while the official voting results were undoubtedly fabricated, independent exit polls put the number of voters supporting the amendment at just below 50 percent. The margin of error in such polls is typically 5 percentage points, so it is not impossible that more than half of the Belarusian electorate wants Lukashenka to stay in office indefinitely.

Second, Russia conspicuously abstained from criticism of Belarus's voting irregularities. Lukashenka, a tin-pot dictator on the doorstep of the united Europe, is supported by half of his subjects and by a powerful eastern neighbor.

This is somewhat disconcerting.

Andrew Savchenko teaches sociology at the University of Rhode Island and is currently finishing a book on the East European Borderlands.

SOURCE:

http://www.thenewstribune.com/24hour/opinions/story/2135296p-10196875c.html


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