BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

13/01/2006

Fighting the Blues and More: Belarusians To Wear Jeans In Silent Protest

Grass Root Groups Vying for Change in Belarus' Authoritarian Regime

By CHARLOTTE SECTOR

Jan. 13, 2006 - Grass root organizations in the former Soviet republic of Belarus want their countrymen to wear denim as a silent protest to fight for democracy on the 16th of the month. This is the fourth month that various human rights groups have staged an event on the same date to rally people to demand change in the autocratic state, where KGB-like surveillance rules and the media has no rights.

Although other Russian enclaves have been able to ride the wave of democracy with their own "colored revolution," experts say Belarus' 'denim revolution' is different in nature and has many more obstacles to overcome.

"These are voices of opposition in a place where such a thing has been extinguished," said Sarah Mendelson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "In a very authoritarian regime, any kind of protest is a success."

She commends these grass root organizations for taking a stand and showing that they exist, explaining that protesting is considered a criminal activity and any writing that is critical of the regime can land a person in jail for three years.

"Come out in the streets of your cities and towns in jeans! Let's show that we are many," announces the statement released by the youth group Zubr (Bison, Belarus' state animal.)

Why Jeans?

Zubr's denim choice came as a fluke. During one of their rallies, policement seized all of their flags. One of the student group leaders made a flag by tying his jean shirt to a stick, thus becoming their symbol of struggle.

It's also a loaded symbol.

"Jeans evoke the West," said Celeste Wallander, Director of the Russia and Eurasia program at CSIS. "Denim is an assertive statement that they [Belarusians] are not isolated."

Along with wearing denim, Zubr and the human rights group, Chapter 97, are calling for Belarusians to light a candle for fifteen minutes at 8 pm on the 16th of every month. Wallander sees these silent protests as a first step to challenge the repressive regime.

But democracy in Belarus still remains far off in the distance, experts agree.

"People should not think change in Belarus will be like the one in Ukraine," said Wallander referring to the "Orange Revolution" which led to the overthrow of a Russian-backed dictatorship after fraudulent elections.

It won't be like the 'Velvet revolution' in Czechozlovakia or the 'Rose revolution' in Georgia either.

"Certainly there's a kind of contagion but there's nothing pre-destined about it," said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Other popular resistance movements appeared elsewhere like in Azerbaijan and never went anywhere, he said.

Analysts all point to the government's stronghold over the country. The president Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1995 and over the years has steadily consolidated his power, restricting freedom of speech, the press and political opposition. Just last year Lukashenko staged a referendum to eliminate presidential term limits, which passed by a 77 percent margin despite reports of massive fraud by international observers.

In addition, although the country, sandwiched between Russia and Poland, has been independent since 1991, it has retained closer political and economic ties to Russia than any other former Soviet republic. "Russia keeps Belarus within the family," said Kupchan. "This is a country that continues to look to Moscow for guidance and remains under the shadow of Russian power."

He also believes that in Ukraine certain sections of the government had sided with the opposition and journalists jumped on the bandwagon, which hasn't happened in Belarus.

Fearing a Violent Crackdown

Not knowing how widespread or high-level the support for the popular movement worries Mendelson the most. In her view it makes it difficult to gauge Belarus' opposition to the regime.

"There are many more obstacles to overcome because the security services are quite opaque and we don't know what degree the government stands behind the president," she said.

And as the upcoming presidential elections loom two months away, Mendelson fears a brutal crackdown.

"The real problem is that this will get very violent," she said, adding that Europe and the U.S. haven't been as supportive as they were with other transitional regimes received.

She believes that collaborating on a clear message could have an effect and possibly lead to free and fair elections but warns that until March, many things can happen.

Source:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=1502762

Google
 


Partners:
Face.by Social Network
Face.by